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International Journal of Current Microbiology and Applied Sciences (IJCMAS)
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National Academy of Agricultural Sciences (NAAS)
NAAS Score: *5.38 (2020)
[Effective from January 1, 2020]
For more details click here

ICV 2019: 96.39
Index Copernicus ICI Journals Master List 2019 - IJCMAS--ICV 2019: 96.39
For more details click here

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PRINT ISSN : 2319-7692
Online ISSN : 2319-7706
Issues : 12 per year
Publisher : Excellent Publishers
Email : editorijcmas@gmail.com / submit@ijcmas.com
Editor-in-chief: Dr.M.Prakash
Index Copernicus ICV 2018: 95.39
NAAS RATING 2020: 5.38

Int.J.Curr.Microbiol.App.Sci.2017.6(10): 2591-2600
DOI: https://doi.org/10.20546/ijcmas.2017.610.305


Modelling and Forecasting of Total Area, Irrigated Area, Production and Productivity of Important Cereal Crops in India towards Food Security
Nalinikanta Choudhury1, Sumeet Saurav2, Rajeev Ranjan Kumar2* and Neeraj Budhlakoti1
1Centre for Agricultural Bioinformatics, 2Discipline of Agricultural Statistics, ICAR-IASRI, New Delhi-110012, India
*Corresponding author
Abstract:

In this study, under the background of over all food security in India, an attempt have been made to analyse behavior of area, irrigated area, production and productivity of rice, wheat and maize. The descriptive statistics of area, irrigated area, production and productivity of the given crop have been analysed. For the modelling and forecasting purpose Box–Jenkins ARIMA modelling technique has been used to analyse the information from 1951 through 2015. The result of the study reveals that the yield of rice, wheat and maize in India would be 2.57 tons/ha, 3.14 tons/ ha and 3.13 tons/ha in 2021 respectively. The total production of rice, wheat and maize will be increased by 5319 thousand tons, 5.5 thousand tons and 3838 thousand tons in total respectively. It also emphasizes the need for increase in the per hectare yield of these crops in India in order to get a sustainable development of Agriculture. Forecasting of area, irrigated area, production and productivity will be helpful to solve the food security problem and for development of policy research for the major food crops.


Keywords: Time series forecasting, ARIMA model, Area, Production, Irrigated area, Productivity.
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How to cite this article:

Nalinikanta Choudhury, Sumeet Saurav, Rajeev Ranjan Kumar and Neeraj Budhlakoti1. 2017. Modelling and Forecasting of Total Area, Irrigated Area, Production and Productivity of Important Cereal Crops in India towards Food Security.Int.J.Curr.Microbiol.App.Sci. 6(10): 2591-2600. doi: https://doi.org/10.20546/ijcmas.2017.610.305