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International Journal of Current Microbiology and Applied Sciences (IJCMAS)
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National Academy of Agricultural Sciences (NAAS)
NAAS Score: *5.38 (2020)
[Effective from January 1, 2020]
For more details click here

ICV 2018: 95.39
Index Copernicus ICI Journals Master List 2018 - IJCMAS--ICV 2018: 95.39
For more details click here

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PRINT ISSN : 2319-7692
Online ISSN : 2319-7706
Issues : 12 per year
Publisher : Excellent Publishers
Email : editorijcmas@gmail.com / submit@ijcmas.com
Editor-in-chief: Dr.M.Prakash
Index Copernicus ICV 2018: 95.39
NAAS RATING 2020: 5.38

Int.J.Curr.Microbiol.App.Sci.2017.6(7): 587-592
DOI: https://doi.org/10.20546/ijcmas.2017.607.071


Estimation and Forecasting of Chickpea Production by Structural Time-Series Modelling
Roshan Kumar Bhardwaj1*, Vandana Bhardwaj2, D.P. Singh1, S.S. Gautam3, R.R. Saxena4 and Gaurav Jatav4
1Agriculture Statistics, M.G.C.G.V, Chitrakoot, Satna (M.P.), India
2Department in Education, Panchayat, Surguja (CG), India
3Statistics Department of Physical Science, M.G.C.G.V, Chitrakoot, Satna (M.P.), India
4Department of Agriculture Statistics and SSL, I.G.K.V., Raipur (C.G.), India
*Corresponding author
Abstract:

Purpose of present paper is to discuss STM methodology utilized for modelling time-series data in the present of trend, seasonal and cyclic fluctuations. Structural time series model are formulated in such a way that their components are stochastic, i.e. they are regard as being driven by random disturbances. Structural time series model are formulated in such a way that their components are stochastic, i.e. they are regard as being driven by random disturbances. The study mainly confined to secondary collected data from a period 2009-10 to 2014-15 data of promising varieties of chickpea yield. As these techniques, it may be mentioned that models are fitted to the data and coefficient parameter value obtained on the basis of the model are compared with the actual observation for assessing the accuracy of the fitted model. To validate the forecasting ability of the fitted models, for the three years with upper and lower limit. The maximum chickpea yield obtained consistently JG-11variety with forecast for the year 2017-18 obtained 15.36 q/ha and the minimum yield obtained with decreasing order are Vijay and JG-6.


Keywords: AIC, BIC, Goodness of fit, Forecasting, Modelling and structural time series model.
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How to cite this article:

Roshan Kumar Bhardwaj, Vandana Bhardwaj, D.P. Singh, S.S. Gautam, R.R. Saxena and Gaurav Jatav. 2017. Estimation and Forecasting of Chickpea Production by Structural Time-Series Modelling.Int.J.Curr.Microbiol.App.Sci. 6(7): 587-592. doi: https://doi.org/10.20546/ijcmas.2017.607.071