International Journal of Current Microbiology and Applied Sciences (IJCMAS)
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Original Research Articles                      Volume : 9, Issue:12, December, 2020

PRINT ISSN : 2319-7692
Online ISSN : 2319-7706
Issues : 12 per year
Publisher : Excellent Publishers
Email : /
Editor-in-chief: Dr.M.Prakash
Index Copernicus ICV 2018: 95.39
NAAS RATING 2020: 5.38

Int.J.Curr.Microbiol.App.Sci.2020.9(12): 1364-1370

Temporal Trend Analysis and Probabilistic Rainfall Estimation for Bhopal District of Madhya Pradesh
Abhishek M. Waghaye*, R. D. Randhe, Mukesh Kumar and Y. A. Rajwade
Irrigation and Drainage Engineering Division, ICAR-Central Institute of Agricultural Engineering, Bhopal, Madhya Pradesh, India
*Corresponding author

The rainfall analysis including temporal trend is essential for assessing the water scarcity situation of particular region. In this study, the trend analysis of rainfall was carried out using non parametric Mann Kendall and Sen’s slope estimator test. The monthly rainfall of 31 years (1985-2015) of Bhopal district was analyzed for detection of trend and estimation of probabilistic rainfall. The probabilistic rainfall was estimated using frequency factor method at 20%, 50% and 80% probability level. Analysis of 31 years rainfall data showed an average annual rainfall of 1044.7 mm. The 25% deficit criteria for drought indicate that year 1992, 2000 and 2002 were dry years. The results showed the presence of statistically non significant decreasing trend in annual and seasonal (pre-monsoon, post-monsoon and monsoon) rainfall series. The annual probabilistic rainfall was found to be 1573.1 mm, 916.5 mm and 411.5 mm at 20%, 50% and 80% probability level, respectively. The results have an important significance in planning and management of water resources and decision making process.

Keywords: Trend analysis, Mann Kendall, Sen’s slope estimator, Probabilistic rainfall

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How to cite this article:

Abhishek M. Waghaye, R. D. Randhe, Mukesh Kumar and Rajwade, Y. A. 2020. Temporal Trend Analysis and Probabilistic Rainfall Estimation for Bhopal District of Madhya Pradesh.Int.J.Curr.Microbiol.App.Sci. 9(12): 1364-1370. doi:
Copyright: This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike license.