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International Journal of Current Microbiology and Applied Sciences (IJCMAS)
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National Academy of Agricultural Sciences (NAAS)
NAAS Score: *5.38 (2020)
[Effective from January 1, 2020]
For more details click here

ICV 2018: 95.39
Index Copernicus ICI Journals Master List 2018 - IJCMAS--ICV 2018: 95.39
For more details click here

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PRINT ISSN : 2319-7692
Online ISSN : 2319-7706
Issues : 12 per year
Publisher : Excellent Publishers
Email : editorijcmas@gmail.com / submit@ijcmas.com
Editor-in-chief: Dr.M.Prakash
Index Copernicus ICV 2018: 95.39
NAAS RATING 2020: 5.38

Int.J.Curr.Microbiol.App.Sci.2019.8(12): 2383-2398
DOI: https://doi.org/10.20546/ijcmas.2019.812.281


A Time Series Modelling and Forecasting of Irrigated Area under Major Crops in India using ARIMA Models
Sanjeeta Biswas* and Banjul Bhattacharyya
Department of Agricultural Statistics, Bidhan Chandra Krishi Viswavidyalaya, Nadia, Mohanpur-741252, West Bengal, India
*Corresponding author
Abstract:

A time series modelling approach is used to forecast the future values. This paper made an attempt to understand the changing pattern of net irrigated area under major crops through the use of statistical analysis of time series. For the study, data with respect to major crops and its total are collected from Ministry of Agriculture & Farmers Welfare, Govt. of India for the period of 65 years (1950-2015). This paper focused on the best fitted ARIMA model and its forecasting. Validity of the model had also been tested. The efforts were made to forecast, the future irrigated area under major crops for a period up to ten years as accurate as possible. It was found that ARIMA (3, 1, 3) fitted well for rice, maize and tobacco whereas ARIMA (0, 1, 3) model for wheat, total cereal and total pulses crop and for Bajra (3,1,2), total oilseeds crops (0,1,1), sugarcane (3,1,0) and cotton (2,1,1) ARIMA models selected on the basis of satisfying the best fitted model criteria.


Keywords: Time series, ARIMA, Modelling, forecasting, Irrigated area under major crops
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How to cite this article:

Sanjeeta Biswas and Banjul Bhattacharyya. 2019. A Time Series Modelling and Forecasting of Irrigated Area under Major Crops in India using ARIMA Models.Int.J.Curr.Microbiol.App.Sci. 8(12): 2383-2398. doi: https://doi.org/10.20546/ijcmas.2019.812.281