National Academy of Agricultural Sciences (NAAS)
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PRINT ISSN : 2319-7692
Online ISSN : 2319-7706 Issues : 12 per year Publisher : Excellent Publishers Email : editorijcmas@gmail.com / submit@ijcmas.com Editor-in-chief: Dr.M.Prakash Index Copernicus ICV 2018: 95.39 NAAS RATING 2020: 5.38 |
A time series modelling approach is used to forecast the future values. This paper made an attempt to understand the changing pattern of net irrigated area under major crops through the use of statistical analysis of time series. For the study, data with respect to major crops and its total are collected from Ministry of Agriculture & Farmers Welfare, Govt. of India for the period of 65 years (1950-2015). This paper focused on the best fitted ARIMA model and its forecasting. Validity of the model had also been tested. The efforts were made to forecast, the future irrigated area under major crops for a period up to ten years as accurate as possible. It was found that ARIMA (3, 1, 3) fitted well for rice, maize and tobacco whereas ARIMA (0, 1, 3) model for wheat, total cereal and total pulses crop and for Bajra (3,1,2), total oilseeds crops (0,1,1), sugarcane (3,1,0) and cotton (2,1,1) ARIMA models selected on the basis of satisfying the best fitted model criteria.
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