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International Journal of Current Microbiology and Applied Sciences (IJCMAS)
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National Academy of Agricultural Sciences (NAAS)
NAAS Score: *5.38 (2017)
[Effective from January 1, 2017]
For more details click here

ICV 2017: 100.00
Index Copernicus ICI Journals Master List 2017 - IJCMAS--ICV 2017: 100.00
For more details click here
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PRINT ISSN : 2319-7692
Online ISSN : 2319-7706
Issues : 12 per year
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Editor-in-chief: Dr.M.Prakash
Index Copernicus ICV 2017: 100.00
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Int.J.Curr.Microbiol.App.Sci.2018.7(11): 321-326
DOI: https://doi.org/10.20546/ijcmas.2018.711.040


Validity Test of Forecast Error of Wheat Yield through Non-Linear Growth Models in Bihar
Awdhesh Kumar1, Mahesh Kumar1, Mrinmoy Ray2, Avinash Kumar3, Shweta Kumari4 and Piyush Kumar Bhargaw4
1Department of Statistics, Mathematics & Computer Application
3Department of Agril. Extension
4Department of Agronomy, RPCAU, Pusa, Bihar, India
2IASRI, ICAR, New Delhi, India
*Corresponding author
Abstract:

The present study has aimed to test the accuracy of Forecast error (FE) value of wheat yield through non-linear models in Bihar. For this study, there were four models namely Monomolecular, Logistic, Gompertz and Compound growth model has been taken under study. The best suitable non-linear model is selected on the basis of different statistic i.e. MAPE, RMSE, OSAF, % FE. These were computed for various growth models under the three agro-climatic zones of Bihar and also for whole Bihar state. On the basis of these statistic Monomolecular model is best fit due to low value of MAPE, RMSE, OSAF and % FE. Minimum % FE found in case of monomolecular model in zone I, zone II, zone III and whole Bihar are 6.69%, 15.32%, 2.56%, 0.85% respectively. Whereas maximum % FE are found in case of compound growth model in zone I, zone II, zone III and whole Bihar are 28.3%, 23.75%, 31.62% and 25% respectively. It was also found that the minimum % FE in case of monomolecular model among all Zones including whole Bihar is 0. 89% which is in complete Bihar condition. The low value of MAPE, RMSE, OSAF, % FE also supported the validity test of forecast yield value of wheat in case of monomolecular model.


Keywords: Non-linear growth models, Accuracy test, Wheat yield, Forecasting of wheat
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How to cite this article:

Awdhesh Kumar, Mahesh Kumar, Mrinmoy Ray, Avinash Kumar, Shweta Kumari and Piyush Kumar Bhargaw. 2018. Validity Test of Forecast Error of Wheat Yield through Non-Linear Growth Models in Bihar.Int.J.Curr.Microbiol.App.Sci. 7(11): 321-326. doi: https://doi.org/10.20546/ijcmas.2018.711.040