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International Journal of Current Microbiology and Applied Sciences (IJCMAS)
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National Academy of Agricultural Sciences (NAAS)
NAAS Score: *5.38 (2019)
[Effective from January 1, 2019]
For more details click here

ICV 2017: 100.00
Index Copernicus ICI Journals Master List 2017 - IJCMAS--ICV 2017: 100.00
For more details click here

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PRINT ISSN : 2319-7692
Online ISSN : 2319-7706
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Editor-in-chief: Dr.M.Prakash
Index Copernicus ICV 2017: 100.00
NAAS RATING 2018: 5.38

Int.J.Curr.Microbiol.App.Sci.2018.7(2): 149-156
DOI: https://doi.org/10.20546/ijcmas.2018.702.019


ARIMA Model for Forecasting of Area, Production and Productivity of Rice and Its Growth Status in Thanjavur District of Tamil Nadu, India
M. Hemavathi1* and K. Prabakaran2
1Agricultural Statistics, Institute of Agricultural Science, Banaras Hindu University, Varanasi, Uttar Pradesh, India
2Agricultural Statistics, Agricultural College and Research Institute, Madurai, Tamil Nadu Agricultural University, Tamil Nadu, India
*Corresponding author
Abstract:

Crop acreage estimation and crop yield forecasting are two components, which are crucial for proper planning and policy making in the agriculture sector of the country. This research is a study model of forecasting area, production and productivity of rice in Thanjavur district as it is a “Rice bowl of Tamil Nadu”. Data for the period of 1990-91 to 2014-15 were analyzed by time series methods. Auto Correlation Function (ACF) and Partial Auto Correlation Function (PACF) were calculated for the data. Appropriate Box-Jenkins Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model was fitted. Validity of the model was tested using standard statistical techniques. For forecasting area, production and productivity ARIMA (0, 1, 2), (0, 1, 1) and (0, 1, 1) model respectively were used to forecast five leading years. The results also shows area forecast for the year 2020 to be about 158.15 thousand hectare with upper and lower limit 200.85 and 122.80 thousand hectares respectively, production forecast to be about 637.05 thousand tonnes with upper and lower limit 1057.63 and 216.47 thousand tonnes respectively and productivity forecast to be about 3.79 thousand kg per ha with upper and lower limit 5.83 and 1.75 thousand kg per ha respectively. The growth pattern was examined by fitting an exponential function (Y = ABt). The result showed that the compound growth rate of rice was negative and non significant for area, production and yield for the study periods.


Keywords: Forecasting, Area, Production, Productivity, Rice, ARIMA, CGR
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How to cite this article:

Hemavathi, M. and Prabakaran, K. 2018. ARIMA Model for Forecasting of Area, Production and Productivity of Rice and Its Growth Status in Thanjavur District of Tamil Nadu, India.Int.J.Curr.Microbiol.App.Sci. 7(2): 149-156. doi: https://doi.org/10.20546/ijcmas.2018.702.019