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International Journal of Current Microbiology and Applied Sciences (IJCMAS)
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National Academy of Agricultural Sciences (NAAS)
NAAS Score: *5.38 (2019)
[Effective from January 1, 2019]
For more details click here

ICV 2017: 100.00
Index Copernicus ICI Journals Master List 2017 - IJCMAS--ICV 2017: 100.00
For more details click here

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Index Copernicus ICV 2017: 100.00
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Int.J.Curr.Microbiol.App.Sci.2017.6(5): 299-306
DOI: https://doi.org/10.20546/ijcmas.2017.605.034


Forecast Verification Analysis of Rainfall for Southern Districts of Tamil Nadu, India
M. Joseph1*, E. Murugan1 and M. Hemalatha2
1Agricultural Research Station, Kovilpatti – 628 501, India
2Agricultural College and Research Institute, Killikulam, Tamil Nadu Agricultural University Thoothukudi District, Tamil Nadu, India
*Corresponding author
Abstract:

The weather forecast and actual weather data received from Indian Meteorological Department, Pune were compared to verify the accuracy of rainfall forecast for the year 2015- 16 at AMFU centre, Kovilpatti, Tamil Nadu. The forecast verification for rainfall verified by using the statistical tools of Forecast Accuracy, Critical Success Index, Heidke Skill Score and Hanssen and Kuipers Scores. The analysis of rainfall verification revealed that, the number of hits (predicted and observed as no rain - NN) was 47.0, 35.0 & 44.0, the occurrences of rain (YY) was 29.2, 43.2 & 32.2, the numbers of false alarms (YN) was 28. 17.2 & 21.0 and the number of misses (NY) were 6.6, 8.8 & 7.0 over 104 forecast for Virudhunagar, Tirunelveli and Thoothukudi district, respectively. Forecast Accuracy (ACC) ranged from 0.7 to 0.8 and the highest accuracy of rainfall prediction was observed in Tirunelveli district followed by Virudhunagar and Thoothukudi. Similarly Critical Success Index (CSI) was recorded the values of 0.51, 0.60 and 0.50 for Virudhunagar, Tirunelveli and Thoothukudi district, respectively. Heidke Skill Score (HSS) was accounted as 0.50 for three districts. Among the five days of forecast, ACC for Virudhunagar registered the higher accuracy of rainfall prediction at day 1 and 3 (78 per cent) followed by day 5 (71 per cent). For Tirunelveli, day 1 recorded the higher accuracy (81 per cent) followed by day 4 (78 per cent). The higher accuracy of rainfall prediction of 78 per cent for day 1 and 77 per cent for day 3 were recorded at Thoothukudi district.


Keywords: Rainfall, Forecast verification, Southern district of Tamil Nadu.
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How to cite this article:

Joseph, M., E. Murugan and Hemalatha, M. 2017. Forecast Verification Analysis of Rainfall for Southern Districts of Tamil Nadu, IndiaInt.J.Curr.Microbiol.App.Sci. 6(5): 299-306. doi: https://doi.org/10.20546/ijcmas.2017.605.034