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International Journal of Current Microbiology and Applied Sciences (IJCMAS)
IJCMAS is now DOI (CrossRef) registered Research Journal. The DOIs are assigned to all published IJCMAS Articles.
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National Academy of Agricultural Sciences (NAAS)
NAAS Score: *5.38 (2020)
[Effective from January 1, 2020]
For more details click here

ICV 2019: 96.39
Index Copernicus ICI Journals Master List 2019 - IJCMAS--ICV 2019: 96.39
For more details click here

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Original Research Articles

PRINT ISSN : 2319-7692
Online ISSN : 2319-7706
Issues : 12 per year
Publisher : Excellent Publishers
Email : editorijcmas@gmail.com / submit@ijcmas.com
Editor-in-chief: Dr.M.Prakash
Index Copernicus ICV 2018: 95.39
NAAS RATING 2020: 5.38

Int.J.Curr.Microbiol.App.Sci.2020.9(10): 3059-3068
DOI: https://doi.org/10.20546/ijcmas.2020.910.368


Forecasting of Vegetable Arrivals and Wholesale Prices of Koyambedu Market in Chennai Using SARIMA Approach
C. Tamilselvi* and G. Mohan Naidu
Department of Statistics and Computer Applications, S.V. Agricultural College, Tirupati (A.P), India
*Corresponding author
Abstract:

Forecasting of vegetable arrivals and prices gain more significant because of its perishability and seasonality. Adequate information on prices and arrivals would bridge the gap between production and marketing. The secondary data regarding monthly arrivals (qtls) and prices (Rs/qtl) of tomato and onion were collected for a period of 8 years (2011-2018). Forecasting was done using SARIMA models for next 6 months. SARIMA (3, 0, 3) (3, 0, 2)12 and (2, 2, 2) (1, 0, 1)12 were the best model for forecasting the tomato arrivals and prices while SARIMA (1, 2, 3) (1, 2, 2)12 and (2, 0, 3) (2, 0, 3)12 were the best model for forecasting the onion arrivals and prices in Koyambedu (Chennai) market respectively. The actual and predicted values of vegetable arrivals and prices were similar to each other except tomato arrivals. Tomato arrivals were high in the month of February (106369 qtls) whereas peak prices (Rs 1966/qtl) were in the month of January. The peaks of onion arrivals (162534 qtls) were noticed in the Month of January whereas prices (Rs 4211 /qtl) were high in June among the forecasted values.


Keywords: Tomato, Onion, SARIMA, ACF, PACF, , RMSE
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How to cite this article:

Tamilselvi, C. and Mohan Naidu, G. 2020. Forecasting of Vegetable Arrivals and Wholesale Prices of Koyambedu Market in Chennai Using SARIMA Approach.Int.J.Curr.Microbiol.App.Sci. 9(10): 3059-3068. doi: https://doi.org/10.20546/ijcmas.2020.910.368