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International Journal of Current Microbiology and Applied Sciences (IJCMAS)
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National Academy of Agricultural Sciences (NAAS)
NAAS Score: *5.38 (2020)
[Effective from January 1, 2020]
For more details click here

ICV 2018: 95.39
Index Copernicus ICI Journals Master List 2018 - IJCMAS--ICV 2018: 95.39
For more details click here

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Original Research Articles

PRINT ISSN : 2319-7692
Online ISSN : 2319-7706
Issues : 12 per year
Publisher : Excellent Publishers
Email : editorijcmas@gmail.com / submit@ijcmas.com
Editor-in-chief: Dr.M.Prakash
Index Copernicus ICV 2018: 95.39
NAAS RATING 2020: 5.38

Int.J.Curr.Microbiol.App.Sci.2020.9(7): 1156-1166
DOI: https://doi.org/10.20546/ijcmas.2020.907.135


Statistical Model for Forecasting Area, Production and Productivity of Sesame Crop (Sesamum indicum L.) in Andhra Pradesh, India
N. Priyanka Evangilin1*, B. Ramana Murthy1, G. Mohan Naidu1 and B. Aparna2
Department of Statistics and Computer Applications, 4Department of Agricultural Economics Acharya N.G. Ranga Agricultural University, S.V. Agricultural College, Tirupati, India
*Corresponding author
Abstract:

This research study was carried out to fit different Linear, Non – Linear and time series ARIMA models on Area, Production and Productivity of Sesame (Sesamum indicum L.) in Andhra Pradesh for the period 1965-66 to 2017-18.The statistically best fitted model was chosen on the basis of goodness of fit criteria viz. R2, Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). Among all the models ARIMA (3, 0, 0), ARIMA (3, 0, 3) and ARIMA (3, 1, 1) models, were found to be the best fitted models and these models are used to forecast area, production and productivity of Sesame crop in Andhra Pradesh for further five years. The forecasted results showed for area, production and productivity of Sesame crop for the year 2020-21 to be 51.66 thousand hectare, 17.64 thousand tonnes and 323.43 in kg/hectare respectively. And also it is showed, there is a fluctuated trend on Area and Production and increasing trend on Productivity from the period 2018-19 to 2022-23.


Keywords: Sesame crop, Area, Production, Productivity, Forecast and ARIMA Model
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How to cite this article:

Priyanka Evangilin, N., B. Ramana Murthy, G. Mohan Naidu and Aparna, B. 2020. Statistical Model for Forecasting Area, Production and Productivity of Sesame Crop (Sesamum indicum L.) in Andhra Pradesh, India.Int.J.Curr.Microbiol.App.Sci. 9(7): 1156-1166. doi: https://doi.org/10.20546/ijcmas.2020.907.135