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International Journal of Current Microbiology and Applied Sciences (IJCMAS)
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National Academy of Agricultural Sciences (NAAS)
NAAS Score: *5.38 (2020)
[Effective from January 1, 2020]
For more details click here

ICV 2018: 95.39
Index Copernicus ICI Journals Master List 2018 - IJCMAS--ICV 2018: 95.39
For more details click here

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Original Research Articles

PRINT ISSN : 2319-7692
Online ISSN : 2319-7706
Issues : 12 per year
Publisher : Excellent Publishers
Email : editorijcmas@gmail.com / submit@ijcmas.com
Editor-in-chief: Dr.M.Prakash
Index Copernicus ICV 2018: 95.39
NAAS RATING 2020: 5.38

Int.J.Curr.Microbiol.App.Sci.2020.9(5): 829-836
DOI: https://doi.org/10.20546/ijcmas.2020.905.092


Exploring Appropriate Regression Model to Forecast Production of Rabi Pulse in Odisha, India
Abhiram Dash* and Pragati Panigrahi
Odisha University of Agriculture and Technology, Bhubaneswar, India
*Corresponding author
Abstract:

Forecasting of area/yield/production of crops is one of the important aspects in agricultural sector. Crop yield forecasts are extremely useful in formulation of policies regarding stock, distribution and supply of agricultural produce to different areas in the country. In this study the forecast values of area, yield and hence production of rabi pulses are found. ARIMA method should not be used for finding the forecasted values for the testing period as this would increase the uncertainty with the end period of testing data. The uncertainty will further increase for the next future periods for which we want to obtain the forecast values. So, in the present study, the regression models are tried for the purpose of forecasting as these models have no such limitation. The regression models used for the study are Linear, Quadratic, Cubic, Power, Compound and Logarithmic. The parametric co-efficients are tested for significance, the error assumptions are also tested and the model fit statistics obtained for different models are compared. Logarithmic model is found to be the best model for area under rabi pulse and power model for yield of rabi pulse. It is found that though there is increase in future areas, the decrease in future yield causes a slow increase in production of rabi pulse.


Keywords: Agricultural sector, Crop yield, Logarithmic model
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How to cite this article:

Abhiram Dash and Pragati Panigrahi. 2020. Exploring Appropriate Regression Model to Forecast Production of Rabi Pulse in Odisha, India.Int.J.Curr.Microbiol.App.Sci. 9(5): 829-836. doi: https://doi.org/10.20546/ijcmas.2020.905.092