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International Journal of Current Microbiology and Applied Sciences (IJCMAS)
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National Academy of Agricultural Sciences (NAAS)
NAAS Score: *5.38 (2020)
[Effective from January 1, 2020]
For more details click here

ICV 2018: 95.39
Index Copernicus ICI Journals Master List 2018 - IJCMAS--ICV 2018: 95.39
For more details click here

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PRINT ISSN : 2319-7692
Online ISSN : 2319-7706
Issues : 12 per year
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Editor-in-chief: Dr.M.Prakash
Index Copernicus ICV 2018: 95.39
NAAS RATING 2020: 5.38

Int.J.Curr.Microbiol.App.Sci.2020.9(5): 57-66
DOI: https://doi.org/10.20546/ijcmas.2020.905.005


Weekly Rainfall Analysis by Markov Chain Model in Samastipur District of Bihar, India
Pappu Kumar Paswan1*, Ved Prakesh Kumar2, Andhale Anil Nanasaheb3 and Abhishek Pratap Singh4
1Krishi Vigyan Kendra, Purnea, Bihar, India
2College of Agricultural Engineering, Dr.R.P.C.A.U, Pusa, Samastipur, India
3Department of Soil and Water Conservation Engineering, College of Agricultural Engineering and Technology, Junagadh Agricultural University, India
*Corresponding author
Abstract:

The historical rainfall data for the period of 22 years (19981-2019) of Samastipur district in Bihar were analyzed weekly rainfall data by using Markov chain model and initial and conditional probabilities were estimated for 10 mm and 20 mm rainfall amount. the initial probability of getting 10 mm rainfall during 23th to 42th SMW are more than 60% except 39th,41th and 42th SMW. Conditional probabilities of wet week preceded by another wet week of getting 10 mm rainfall during 23th to 40th SMW were 50% and more. initial probability of getting 20 mm rainfall during 23th to 38th SMW are more than 45% (Table 1.) whereas conditional probability of wet week preceded by another wet week of getting 20 mm rainfall during 23th to 38th SMW were 45% and more except 30th and 35th SMW. consecutive dry and wet week revealed that chances of occurrence of 10 mm and 20 mm 2 consecutive dry weeks are 0-54.55% and 0-59.09% respectively whereas 2 consecutive wet weeks are 0% - 86.36% and 0- 81.82% respectively from 23th to 42nd SMW respectively. The probability of 10 mm and 20 mm, 3 consecutive dry weeks are 0-54.55% and 0-59.09% respectively whereas 3 consecutive wet weeks are 0-72.73% and 0-63.64% respectively from 23rd to 42th SMW respectively


Keywords: Weekly Rainfall, Markov Chain Model, Onset and Withdrawal of Rainfall
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How to cite this article:

Pappu Kumar Paswan, Ved Prakesh Kumar, Andhale Anil Nanasaheb and Abhishek Pratap Singh4. 2020. Weekly Rainfall Analysis by Markov Chain Model in Samastipur District of Bihar.Int.J.Curr.Microbiol.App.Sci. 9(5): 57-66. doi: https://doi.org/10.20546/ijcmas.2020.905.005