National Academy of Agricultural Sciences (NAAS)
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PRINT ISSN : 2319-7692
Online ISSN : 2319-7706 Issues : 12 per year Publisher : Excellent Publishers Email : editorijcmas@gmail.com / submit@ijcmas.com Editor-in-chief: Dr.M.Prakash Index Copernicus ICV 2018: 95.39 NAAS RATING 2020: 5.38 |
The historical rainfall data for the period of 22 years (19981-2019) of Samastipur district in Bihar were analyzed weekly rainfall data by using Markov chain model and initial and conditional probabilities were estimated for 10 mm and 20 mm rainfall amount. the initial probability of getting 10 mm rainfall during 23th to 42th SMW are more than 60% except 39th,41th and 42th SMW. Conditional probabilities of wet week preceded by another wet week of getting 10 mm rainfall during 23th to 40th SMW were 50% and more. initial probability of getting 20 mm rainfall during 23th to 38th SMW are more than 45% (Table 1.) whereas conditional probability of wet week preceded by another wet week of getting 20 mm rainfall during 23th to 38th SMW were 45% and more except 30th and 35th SMW. consecutive dry and wet week revealed that chances of occurrence of 10 mm and 20 mm 2 consecutive dry weeks are 0-54.55% and 0-59.09% respectively whereas 2 consecutive wet weeks are 0% - 86.36% and 0- 81.82% respectively from 23th to 42nd SMW respectively. The probability of 10 mm and 20 mm, 3 consecutive dry weeks are 0-54.55% and 0-59.09% respectively whereas 3 consecutive wet weeks are 0-72.73% and 0-63.64% respectively from 23rd to 42th SMW respectively
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