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International Journal of Current Microbiology and Applied Sciences (IJCMAS)
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National Academy of Agricultural Sciences (NAAS)
NAAS Score: *5.38 (2019)
[Effective from January 1, 2019]
For more details click here

ICV 2017: 100.00
Index Copernicus ICI Journals Master List 2017 - IJCMAS--ICV 2017: 100.00
For more details click here

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PRINT ISSN : 2319-7692
Online ISSN : 2319-7706
Issues : 12 per year
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Editor-in-chief: Dr.M.Prakash
Index Copernicus ICV 2017: 100.00
NAAS RATING 2018: 5.38

Int.J.Curr.Microbiol.App.Sci.2019.8(11): 728-738
DOI: https://doi.org/10.20546/ijcmas.2019.811.087


Modeling and Forecasting of Arecanut Production in India-Vision 2020
Lakshmi Narsimhaiah*, P.K. Sahu, Sh Herojit Singh, Kanchan Sinha, SoumikDey and Pramit Pandit
Department of Agricultural Statistics, Bidhan Chandra Krishi Vishwavidalaya, Mohanpur, Nadia, West Bengal, Pin code: 741252, India
*Corresponding author
Abstract:

Arecanutis an important plantation crop which India holds number one position in area and production. Arecanut has the never ending list of uses i.e. for chewing purpose, as medicine, as vegetable, as stimulant, fuel wood, lubricant, tannin, wrapping, clothing etc.,(Aman, 1969). Arecanut is facing numerous hurdles adding pressure to the mere survival of the sector not only in domestic but also in international sector. Forecasting methods can help estimate many such future aspects of any business operation and so also in agriculture. ARIMA, ARIMAx and Combined forecast techniques used to model and forecast the area, production and productivity of arecanut until 2020 using time series data for a period of 1965 to 2015. Area of India under arecanut for the year 2020 is forecasted to be 447.581 thousand hectares by the best fitted ARIMA (1,1,1). The estimate of production for arecanut by 2020 found to be 723.834, 975.452 and 849.643 metrictonnes by the best fitted ARIMA (0,1,2), ARIMAx (1,1,0) and combined forecast methods respectively. Similarly productivity by the end of 2020 found to be 1595.966, 1576.010 and 1585.988 kg per hectare using the best fitted ARIMA (0,1,1), ARIMAx (0,1,1) and combined forecast respectively.


Keywords: Arecanut, Modeling, forecasting, ARIMA, ARIMAx, Combined forecast
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How to cite this article:

Lakshmi Narsimhaiah, P.K. Sahu, Sh Herojit Singh, Kanchan Sinha, Soumik Dey and Pramit Pandit. 2019. Modeling and Forecasting of Arecanut Production in India-Vision 2020.Int.J.Curr.Microbiol.App.Sci. 8(11): 728-738. doi: https://doi.org/10.20546/ijcmas.2019.811.087