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International Journal of Current Microbiology and Applied Sciences (IJCMAS)
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National Academy of Agricultural Sciences (NAAS)
NAAS Score: *5.38 (2019)
[Effective from January 1, 2019]
For more details click here

ICV 2017: 100.00
Index Copernicus ICI Journals Master List 2017 - IJCMAS--ICV 2017: 100.00
For more details click here

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PRINT ISSN : 2319-7692
Online ISSN : 2319-7706
Issues : 12 per year
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Editor-in-chief: Dr.M.Prakash
Index Copernicus ICV 2017: 100.00
NAAS RATING 2018: 5.38

Int.J.Curr.Microbiol.App.Sci.2019.8(11): 1710-1719
DOI: https://doi.org/10.20546/ijcmas.2019.811.199


Forecasting of Coconut Production in India: An approach with ARIMA, ARIMAx and Combined Forecast Techniques
Lakshmi Narsimhaiah*, P.K. Sahu, Kanchan Sinha, Sh Herojit Singh, Soumik Dey and Pramit Pandit
Department of Agricultural Statistics, Bidhan Chandra Krishi Vishwavidalaya, Mohanpur, Nadia, West Bengal-741252, India
*Corresponding author
Abstract:

Coconut is an important plantation crop which India holds third position in production. Coconut has the never ending list of uses also is facing numerous hurdles adding pressure to the mere survival of the sector. With increasing human population forecasting methods can help estimate many such future aspects. ARIMA, ARIMAx and Combined forecast techniques used to model and forecast the production of coconut until 2020 using time series data for a period of 1949 to 2015. For India as a whole the best fitted models ARIMA (1,1,2), ARIMAx (1,1,0) and the Combined forecast techniques projected coconut production to be 23396.122, 33013.792, 28204.957 Million nuts respectively. It is found that combined forecasting performed better compared with ARIMA and ARIMAx in all most all cases considering the criteria of R2, RMSE, MAE and MAPE. Among the three methods of modeling and forecasting ARIMAx models outperform ARIMA models and combined forecasting method yields better modeling and forecasting accuracy.


Keywords: Coconut, Modeling, Forecasting, ARIMA, ARIMAx, Combined forecast
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How to cite this article:

Lakshmi Narsimhaiah, P.K. Sahu, Kanchan Sinha, Sh Herojit Singh, Soumik Dey and Pramit Pandit. 2019. Forecasting of Coconut Production in India: An approach with ARIMA, ARIMAx and Combined Forecast Techniques.Int.J.Curr.Microbiol.App.Sci. 8(11): 1710-1719. doi: https://doi.org/10.20546/ijcmas.2019.811.199