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International Journal of Current Microbiology and Applied Sciences (IJCMAS)
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National Academy of Agricultural Sciences (NAAS)
NAAS Score: *5.38 (2017)
[Effective from January 1, 2017]
For more details click here

ICV 2017: 100.00
Index Copernicus ICI Journals Master List 2017 - IJCMAS--ICV 2017: 100.00
For more details click here
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PRINT ISSN : 2319-7692
Online ISSN : 2319-7706
Issues : 12 per year
Publisher : Excellent Publishers
Email : editorijcmas@gmail.com / submit@ijcmas.com
Editor-in-chief: Dr.M.Prakash
Index Copernicus ICV 2017: 100.00
NAAS RATING 2018: 5.38

Int.J.Curr.Microbiol.App.Sci.2018.7(11): 2202-2210
DOI: https://doi.org/10.20546/ijcmas.2018.711.246


Forecasting Yield of Major Crops in Different District of Middle Gujarat and North Gujarat Using Statistical Techniques
S.B. Yadav1*, M.J. Vasani1, N.J. Chaudhari1 and Mayur Shitap2
1Department of Agricultural Meteorology, Anand Agricultural University, Anand – 388 110, Gujarat, India
2Department of Agricultural Statistics, Junagadh Agricultural University,
Junagadh-362001, India
*Corresponding author
Abstract:

Pre harvest forecast of agricultural production is essentially required for food security point of view. In this paper attempt has been made to develop model for forecasting the yield of kharif (Groundnut, paddy, maize) and rabi (wheat and mustard) crop of different district of middle Gujarat and north Gujarat using regression technique. The model were developed base on 30 years (1985 to 2015) district wise crop yield and weekly meteorological data and validated with 2 years (2010-11 & 2011-12) and forecast were issued for 2012-13. The result showed that for kharif crop the model developed could explain 40 to 90% variation in groundnut yield 47 to 93% variation in paddy yield 54 to 87% variation in maize yield in different district of middle and north Gujarat. For rabi crops (wheat and mustard) the models explained about 60 to 90% variation in the yield in different districts. The R2 obtained were found to be significant at P=0.01. During validation period (2010 &11) the predicted yield deviations less than 10% of the reported yields were crop and districts. This revealed that the models can successfully be used for yield forecasting. The district wise yield forecast was issued for different crops for year 2012-13. The details of the findings are discussed in the paper.


Keywords: Regression model, Weighted and unweighed coefficient, Yield forecast model, Kharif and rabi crop
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How to cite this article:

Yadav, S.B., M.J. Vasani, N.J. Chaudhari and Mayur Shitap. 2018. Forecasting Yield of Major Crops in Different District of Middle Gujarat and North Gujarat Using Statistical Techniques.Int.J.Curr.Microbiol.App.Sci. 7(11): 2202-2210. doi: https://doi.org/10.20546/ijcmas.2018.711.246