National Academy of Agricultural Sciences (NAAS)
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PRINT ISSN : 2319-7692
Online ISSN : 2319-7706 Issues : 12 per year Publisher : Excellent Publishers Email : editorijcmas@gmail.com / submit@ijcmas.com Editor-in-chief: Dr.M.Prakash Index Copernicus ICV 2018: 95.39 NAAS RATING 2020: 5.38 |
Pre harvest forecast of agricultural production is essentially required for food security point of view. In this paper attempt has been made to develop model for forecasting the yield of kharif (Groundnut, paddy, maize) and rabi (wheat and mustard) crop of different district of middle Gujarat and north Gujarat using regression technique. The model were developed base on 30 years (1985 to 2015) district wise crop yield and weekly meteorological data and validated with 2 years (2010-11 & 2011-12) and forecast were issued for 2012-13. The result showed that for kharif crop the model developed could explain 40 to 90% variation in groundnut yield 47 to 93% variation in paddy yield 54 to 87% variation in maize yield in different district of middle and north Gujarat. For rabi crops (wheat and mustard) the models explained about 60 to 90% variation in the yield in different districts. The R2 obtained were found to be significant at P=0.01. During validation period (2010 &11) the predicted yield deviations less than 10% of the reported yields were crop and districts. This revealed that the models can successfully be used for yield forecasting. The district wise yield forecast was issued for different crops for year 2012-13. The details of the findings are discussed in the paper.
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